(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Key TakeawaysThe U.S. delegation arrived in Qatar, but Iran refuses to meet, raising doubts about peace talks.
|
Global Market Review 01/07/2026
U.S. stocks rose, led by tech. Dow +0.26%, S&P 500 +0.78%, Nasdaq +1.52%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq had best quarter since 2020; Dow’s best first half in five years. U.S. Treasury yields rose; dollar index up 0.1%. Gold fell 0.2% to $4,007/oz, down 12% for June. Oil prices stayed near recent lows.
Key Events Today:
Canada , Hong Kong Holiday
- 04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
- 07:00 AU Manufacturing PMI Final JUN **
- 07:50 JP Manufacturing PMI Final JUN **
- 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final JUN **
- 16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final JUN **
- 16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final JUN **
- 17:00 EU CPI YoY Flash JUN ***
- 20:15 US ADP Employment Change JUN ***
- 21:00 Fed Chair Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Gov Bailey, BoC Gov Macklem Speech ***
- 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI JUN ***
- 22:00 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **
July 2 (GMT+8)
- 17:00 EU Unemployment Rate MAY **
- 20:30 US Non Farm Payrolls JUN ***
- 20:30 US Unemployment Rate JUN ***
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 22:00 US Factory Orders MAY **
Markets Analysis 01/07/2026
- Resistance: 1.1474 / 1.1509
- Support: 1.1360 / 1.1325
After consolidating near 1.1420, the euro slipped slightly yesterday as markets awaited key data releases and the ECB forum in Sintra.
Analyst View: The pair accelerated lower in early Asia trading after stalling its recent rally. Today’s focus is on the Eurozone CPI and central bank speeches, which may set the next direction. Price tested the 10-day moving average and may hover around 1.1400 awaiting guidance.
Bias: Pressured, awaiting guidance
- Resistance: 1.3304 / 1.3334
- Support: 1.3201 / 1.3176
BoE Governor Bailey noted that time is needed to assess the pass-through of higher energy prices. Sterling closed at its highest since June 18, though it partially retraced this morning as markets reacted to his comments.
Analyst View: Trading within the 10‑ and 20‑day moving average range. Manufacturing data and central bank speeches will provide cues. The 20‑day MA near 1.3300 is the key resistance.
Bias: Range‑bound
- Resistance: 162.89 / 162.99
- Support: 162.47 / 162.36
U.S.–Iran tensions and Fed expectations weakened the yen to its lowest since 1986, raising intervention risks.
Analyst View: After its largest weekly gain in over a week, USD/JPY hit 162.78 this morning, the highest since 1986. Fed Chair Warsh’s remarks will be pivotal, while intervention concerns may temper moves near 163.
Bias: Cautious at highs
- Resistance: 71.67 / 72.30
- Support: 68.44 / 67.67
Oil held near $70 as markets watched U.S.–Iran talks, keeping prices at pre-conflict levels.
Analyst View: Prices remain in a narrow low-range band. The 10-day MA is key resistance toward $72, while $68.56 continues to provide support. Watch geopolitical headlines for the catalyst that could trigger a breakout.
Bias: Range consolidation
- Resistance: 4024/4077
- Support: 3940/3886
- Resistance: 60.30/61.48
- Support:56.43/55.24
Gold slipped near $4,000 yesterday, hitting its lowest since early November, as traders reacted to U.S.–Iran uncertainty. Silver, however, rebounded.
Analyst View: Gold tested below $4,000 this morning. Central bank policy stances, especially Fed Chair Warsh’s remarks, will determine whether the downtrend eases.
Bias: Pressured at lows
- Resistance: 52,744 / 52,950
- Support: 51,866 / 51,663
U.S. stocks rose yesterday; the Dow hit a new high with its best first-half since 2021.
Analyst View: The Dow continues to set new closing highs, targeting last week’s intraday peak above 52,600. Warsh’s stance will determine whether gains extend or reverse.
Bias: Wait and see at highs
- Resistance: 30,659 / 30,868
- Support: 29,974 / 29,762
Tech stocks led gains yesterday, driving the Nasdaq to outperform as investors favored growth shares.
Analyst View: After consecutive rebounds, Nasdaq broke above the 10‑ and 20‑day MAs near 29,760, which have now turned into support. Focus shifts to whether 30,600+ can be reclaimed, though a hawkish Warsh could cap upside.
Bias: Short‑term bullish
- Resistance: 59,100/60,308
- Support: 57,174/55,950
Yesterday, Bitcoin slipped near yearly lows as rate concerns persisted, on track for two straight quarterly losses.
Analyst View: Bitcoin accelerated lower yesterday toward the bottom of its recent range. A break below could open further downside, with attention on supports at $57,174 / $55,950. If it holds above recent lows, the 10-day MA remains the key resistance.
Bias: Pressured at lows
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.
