(By ATFX Analyst Team)
SummaryTrump rejected Iran’s latest proposal as “unacceptable,” while Tehran said talks require approval from the Supreme Leader. With the U.S. preparing a “freedom operation” in the Strait of Hormuz, Middle East risks remain the market’s key uncertainty. Today’s focus: China, Japan, and the UK are closed for holidays, which may keep market activity relatively thin. During the European session, investors will watch the final April manufacturing PMI readings from Germany and the Eurozone. If the figures remain near expectations, the market impact may be limited. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for May is expected to fall to -20.9; a weaker reading could weigh on the euro and European equity indices. In the U.S. session, attention will turn to March factory orders. If the figure rises from 0.0% to the expected 0.5%, it may support the U.S. dollar and U.S. equities. |
Global Market Review 04/05/2026
U.S. equities were broadly stronger last Friday. Supported by solid corporate earnings, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs. The Nasdaq rose 0.89%, the S&P 500 gained 0.29%, while the Dow Jones edged down 0.31%.
The U.S. dollar traded mixed. USD/JPY once fell sharply amid speculation over Japanese intervention but later rebounded slightly. Gold rose modestly to around $4,627 last Friday, after briefly falling to an intraday low near $4,559. The move was mainly supported by repeated shifts in Iran negotiation headlines and a softer U.S. dollar. International oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping to around $108 and WTI crude falling to around $101. However, as supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, oil prices are still holding within a broad range.
Key Events Today:
China, Japan, UK Holiday
- 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final APR **
- 16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final APR **
- 16:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence MAY **
- 22:00 US Factory Orders MoM MAR**
Tomorrow:
China, Japan Holiday
- 07:00 AU Services & Composite PMI Final APR **
- 12:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***
- 13:30 RBA Press Conference ***
- 20:30 US Balance of Trade MAR **
- 21:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final APR **
- 22:00 US New Home Sales MAR **
- 22:00 US ISM Services PMI APR **
Markets Analysis 04/05/2026
- Resistance: 1.1771/1.1801
- Support: 1.1674/1.1643
EURUSD held near 1.1721 as the dollar softened after oil prices pulled back. However, Fed rate-cut expectations remain limited, while uncertainty around Iran keeps the euro’s upside cautious.
Analyst View: EURUSD is trying to stabilise within a wider consolidation range, but the rejection near resistance suggests buyers are not yet fully in control. Unless price breaks above 1.1771–1.1801, the pair may continue rotating between resistance and the 1.1674–1.1643 support area.
Bias: Neutral below 1.1771.
- Resistance: 1.3634/1.3658
- Support: 1.3528/1.3504
GBPUSD slipped 0.16% and may end its four-week winning streak. Sterling remains under pressure from limited Fed rate-cut expectations, while broader dollar movements and oil-related inflation risks remain key drivers.
Analyst View: GBPUSD’s rejection from the upper zone suggests buyers are taking profit after the recent rally. The broader structure is not broken yet, but unless price can reclaim 1.3634, momentum may cool toward the 1.3528–1.3504 support area.
Bias: Neutral to slightly bearish.
- Resistance:157.59/158.05
- Support: 156.02/155.65
USDJPY posted its biggest weekly drop since February after reported Japanese intervention, briefly falling to 155.49 before rebounding to 157.04. Intervention risk remains high if the price quickly returns toward 160.
Analyst View: USDJPY’s sharp drop confirms that intervention risk has become a major ceiling for the pair. However, the rebound from 155.49 shows sellers are not fully in control, especially with yield differentials and energy-import pressure still weighing on the yen.
Bias: Neutral below 158.05.
- Resistance: 105.63/108.70
- Support: 95.51/92.39
WTI fell to around $101.94 after Iran submitted a new peace-talk proposal, easing fears of supply disruptions. Still, OPEC+’s modest output increases and unresolved risks in the Hormuz risks keep oil above $100.
Analyst View: WTI is no longer in a straight momentum rally; the market is now reacting closely to peace-talk headlines. However, as long as price holds above the $95.51–$92.39 support zone, the broader structure still favours buyers on dips.
Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish above $95.51.
- Resistance: 4638/4675
- Support: 4540/4511
- Resistance: 76.39/77.95
- Support: 73.29/71.75
Gold traded near $4,625.83 after rebounding from Friday’s low, supported by a softer dollar and renewed uncertainty over US-Iran talks. However, easing oil prices reduced some immediate safe-haven demand.
Analyst View: Gold is attempting to recover, but the rebound still looks fragile while the price remains trapped below $4,638–$4,675. If US-Iran talks stay uncertain, dips may attract buyers; however, a softer oil backdrop could limit aggressive safe-haven demand.
Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish above $4,540.
- Resistance: 50365/50934
- Support: 49113/48563
The Dow slipped 0.31% to 49,499.27, underperforming as investors rotated toward tech and growth stocks. Strong earnings helped sentiment, but weaker energy names and mixed breadth limited Dow upside.
Analyst View: The Dow is holding a constructive short-term structure, but it is not leading to the broader risk rally. As long as the price stays above 48,563–49,113, buyers still have a base; however, stronger rotation into industrials or value stocks is needed to challenge 50,365–50,934.
Bias: Mild bullish.
- Resistance: 28214/28605
- Support: 27445/26947
The NAS100 rose 0.89% to a record high, supported by strong earnings and tech-led momentum. Apple’s guidance and software strength helped sentiment, while lower oil prices eased inflation concerns.
Analyst View: NAS100 remains the clear leader among major indices, with earnings momentum and growth-stock rotation continuing to support buyers. However, after such a strong climb, the price may need to consolidate before making a cleaner attempt toward 28,214–28,605.
Bias: Bullish above 27,445.
- Resistance: 79497/80026
- Support: 77752/77213
Bitcoin held near $78,411 and continued to target $80,000, supported by strong ETF inflows, U.S. regulatory progress, and record-high S&P 500 sentiment. However, Brazil’s tougher crypto rules and high-rate uncertainty may limit immediate upside.
Analyst View: Bitcoin’s recovery is showing better momentum as buyers continue to defend higher support levels. Still, the $79,497–$80,026 zone is a major psychological and technical ceiling, so a clean breakout is needed before the next bullish leg can gain conviction.
Bias: Neutral to bullish above $77,213.
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