(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Summary
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Global Market Review 01/04/2026
U.S. equities surged on Tuesday, recording their best single-day gains since May 2023. The Dow rose 2.48%, the S&P 500 gained 2.9%, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.8%. Despite the rally, major indices ended Q1 in the red. The U.S. Dollar weakened amid hopes of de-escalation but secured its best quarterly performance since late 2024.
Spot Gold climbed 3.5% to $4,669.56/oz, a multi-week high, despite suffering its worst monthly drop since 2008. Oil prices fell over 3% on news of potential peace, though U.S. crude finished March with a massive 52% gain, the largest monthly surge since 2020.
Key Events Today:
- 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final MAR **
- 16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final MAR **
- 16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final MAR **
- 17:00 EU Unemployment Rate FEB **
- 20:15 US ADP Employment Change MAR ***
- 21:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final MAR ***
- 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI MAR ***
- 22:30 EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock **
Tomorrow
- 01:30 BOC Meeting Minutes ***
- 09:00 US President Trump delivers a nationwide address on the Iran issue ***
- 20:30 US Balance of Trade FEB **
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
Markets Analysis 01/04/2026
- Resistance: 1.1611/1.1640
- Support: 1.1518/1.1490
EURUSD rose 0.68% to 1.1543 as fading war anxieties provided relief. Despite the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump’s indicated willingness to end military operations against Iran triggered a risk-on wave, lifting the Euro from recent lows.
Analyst View: EURUSD is currently attempting to validate an ascending channel breakout, finding demand near the 1.1542 (0.5 Fib) pivot. While geopolitical relief provides a tailwind, bulls must decisively clear the 1.1611 resistance to shift the medium-term structure from neutral to bullish.
Bias: Bullish if sustained above 1.1550.
- Resistance: 1.3318/1.3349
- Support: 1.3188/1.3157
Sterling edged up 0.33% to 1.3228, snapping a five-day losing streak. The recovery was driven by a softening Greenback as markets weighed potential de-escalation in the Middle East against lingering hawkish UK inflation concerns.
Analyst View: GBPUSD has initiated a technical recovery after tagging the 1.3157 (1.236 Fib) extension. The pair is navigating a descending channel, with bulls currently eyeing a retest of the 1.3257 pivot. A decisive push above the 1.3318 resistance zone is essential to neutralize the prevailing bearish trend.
Bias: Hovering in a low-level range.
- Resistance: 159.35/159.78
- Support: 158.29/157.95
USDJPY fell 0.55% to 158.84 following aggressive rhetoric from Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. Attributing recent Yen weakness to speculation, officials reinforced their readiness for “all-round” measures, cooling the pair’s push toward recent highs.
Analyst View: USDJPY has retreated from its uptrend channel ceiling as official “intervention anxiety” triggers technical flush. Price is currently testing the 158.65 (0.618 Fib) pivot; a sustained break below this floor could accelerate a “de-leveraging” move toward the 157.95 support zone.
Bias: Under pressure below 159.00.
- Resistance: 108.33/113.28
- Support: 98.26/93.22
WTI retreated to $102.51 after spiking to a three-week high of $106.86. Conflicting signals emerged as Trump predicted a swift end to the war, while Iranian leaders expressed readiness for peace, potentially removing the massive risk premium built into prices.
Analyst View: WTI is undergoing a “volatile reset” after failing to sustain gains above the 103.29 (0.618 Fib) pivot. The technical rejection suggests a potential “sell the news” reaction to de-escalation talk. Bulls need a daily close above 103.29 to prevent a deep correction toward the 98.26 support.
Bias: Weak consolidation at high levels.
- Resistance: 4815/4893
- Support: 4571/4495
- Resistance: 78.91/82.33
- Support: 72.07/67.83
Gold surged 3.46% to $4,687.06 as the Pentagon warned of a “decisive moment” in the Iran conflict. While Middle East de-escalation hopes to grow, safe-haven demand remains fierce following Iranian drone strikes on tech firms in Israel.
Analyst View: Gold has executed a powerful “V-reversal” within an ascending channel, effectively neutralizing its worst monthly slump since 2008. By reclaiming the 4,646 (0.852 Fib) level, bulls have regained structural control. Expect a momentum-driven test of the 4,815 resistance if geopolitical tensions remain the primary market driver.
Bias: Trading between $4,600 and $4,800.
- Resistance: 46797/47392
- Support: 45464/44879
The Dow rose 2.49% to 46,341.51, its best performance since May 2025. Financial stocks surged 1.1% on new 401(k) guidance, while growing optimism for an end to the Iran conflict sparked a broader “relief rally” across blue-chip components.
Analyst View: The Dow has staged a definitive “oversold” reversal, testing the 46,211 (0.852 Fib) pivot. While still confined within a descending channel, the current momentum suggests a tactical hunt for the 46,797 resistance. Bulls must decisively exit this channel to confirm that the bottom is truly in.
Bias: Mildly bullish above 46,000.
- Resistance: 24196/24465
- Support: 23308/22961
The NAS100 skyrocketed 3.83%, its best day since May 2025. Tech giants led the surge as Nvidia invested $2B into Marvell, while broader optimism about an end to the Iran conflict sparked a massive Short Squeeze.
Analyst View: The index has staged a “V-reversal” after testing the lower rail of its descending channel. Price has aggressively reclaimed the 23,586 level, signaling a tactical shift in momentum. Bulls must now convert the 23,854 psychological barrier into a structural floor to challenge the 24,196 pivot.
Bias: Mildly bullish if 24,000 is breached.
- Resistance: 70488/71792
- Support: 66244/64963
Bitcoin rose 2.1% to $68,197.3, on track to snap a five-month losing streak with a marginal March gain. While “Q-Day” quantum security concerns and the YTD decline of 22% linger, renewed Middle East de-escalation hopes and $70M in spot ETF inflows have stabilized institutional sentiment.
Analyst View: BTC has established a “double bottom”, successfully defending the $64,963 floor. The price is currently testing the $67,570 pivot; a sustained breakout here would open a high-conviction “liquidity gap” toward the $70,488 resistance zone.
Bias: Bullish above 68,000.
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