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US-Iran to Resume Talks; Markets Brace for US Job Data Week

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

The U.S. and Iran have reportedly agreed to a three-day halt of retaliatory strikes around the Strait of Hormuz and will resume technical talks in Qatar on Tuesday. Markets are attentive to developments.

Key focus today includes the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, global inflation and PMI releases, and speeches from central bank governors. Watch for the Eurozone June Industrial Sentiment Index and the U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, both expected to show improvement.

Global Market Review 29/06/2026

U.S. equities closed slightly lower Friday, with AI-related chip stocks falling and healthcare names like Moderna gaining. Weekly performance: S&P 500 down 2.05%, Nasdaq down 4.7%, Dow Jones up 0.6%.

Treasuries & FX: Yields declined, the dollar retreated but ended the week higher.

Commodities: Gold rose 1.6% to $4,088/oz but posted a weekly decline; oil prices fell nearly 7% as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalised.

Key Events Today:

  • 17:00 EU Economic Sentiment JUN **
  • 22:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index JUN **

June 30 (GMT+8)

  • 07:30 JP Unemployment Rate MAY **
  • 09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes ***
  • 09:30 CN Manufacturing & Non Manufacturing PMI JUN **
  • 14:00 GB GDP Final Q1 ***
  • 15:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate JUN **
  • 20:00 EU GERMANY CPI Prel JUN **
  • 20:30 CA GDP APR **
  • 22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence JUN **

Markets Analysis 29/06/2026

  • Resistance: 1.1422 / 1.1437
  • Support: 1.1361 / 1.1346

The euro strengthened for a second day on Friday, trimming gains late as traders weighed Middle East tensions and Fed policy outlook.

Analyst View: The 10-day moving average remains a key resistance; until breached, expect mild rebounds within the lower range.

Bias: Moderate rebound

  • Resistance: 1.3228 / 1.3246
  • Support: 1.3150 / 1.3132

Sterling extended gains Friday as the dollar softened, though geopolitical and domestic political risks remain.

Analyst View: Holding near 1.3200; testing resistance at 1.3240 (10-day MA) will determine the strength of rebound momentum.

Bias: Moderate rebound

  • Resistance: 161.90 / 162.06
  • Support: 161.49 / 161.37

Slight pullback from 162 Friday amid intervention concerns, but pair remains elevated.

Analyst View: Narrow consolidation at high levels; bulls eye a break above 162.

Bias: Sideways consolidation

  • Resistance: 71.66 / 72.29
  • Support: 69.03 / 68.42

Prices fell below $70 in Asia on Monday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause strikes.

Analyst View: Oil remains pressured at recent lows; $69 provides near-term support.

Bias: Low-range consolidation

  • Resistance: 4119/4162
  • Support: 4024/3983
  • Resistance: 61.49/62.98

Support:55.28/54.09

Gold rose above $4,080 Friday as weaker yields pressured the dollar, though Fed rate expectations cap upside.

Analyst View: Mild rebound continues; resistance near $4,140 (10-day MA).

Bias: Moderate rebound

  • Resistance: 52,338 / 52,537
  • Support: 51,663 / 51,404

Dow closed higher Friday despite a tech sell-off, holding an elevated range.

Analyst View: Above 10-day MA, maintaining consolidation; watch 52,000 resistance.

Bias: High-range consolidation

  • Resistance: 29,478 / 29,781
  • Support: 28,801 / 28,493

Tech stocks dragged lower Friday on debt and Fed concerns; the Nasdaq closed at a two-week low.

Analyst View: Holding above 29,000; potential rebound capped by resistance near 29,700.

Bias: Consolidation

  • Resistance: 60305/61250
  • Support: 58155/57178

Bitcoin fell below the key $60,000 mark on Sunday, as persistent ETF outflows, a stronger U.S. dollar, and expectations for tighter monetary policy continued to weigh on sentiment.

Analyst View: Bitcoin remains pressured, with $60,000 acting as resistance. Trading is confined to a low-range channel defined by the 10-day MA and last week’s lows.

Bias: Range-bound at lower levels

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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