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NFP Beats Forecasts; Iran Peace Talks Suffer Blow

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

  • U.S. Jobs Data: April job growth exceeded market expectations, with an increase of 115,000 positions, demonstrating continued labor market resilience. This has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at current levels for some time.
  • Geopolitics: Bloomberg reported on Sunday that U.S. President Trump and Iran have both rejected the latest peace proposals, as both sides struggle to maintain a fragile ceasefire.
  • Focus for Today: Global markets face a series of key indicators this week. The Middle East peace negotiations have entered a critical window. Upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data will test whether inflation is heating up further, while U.S. Retail Sales and UK GDP will reveal the true resilience of consumer spending. Against a backdrop of high oil prices and intensifying internal divisions within the Fed, every data point this week could trigger market volatility.

Global Market Review 11/05/2026

Last Friday, U.S. tech stocks surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new record highs as the strong jobs report underscored economic resilience. The Dow rose 0.02%, the S&P 500 gained 0.84%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.71%. However, the U.S. Dollar weakened for a second consecutive week, as optimism about a U.S.-Iran peace deal initially outweighed the positive payroll data.

Gold prices rose slightly last Friday, recording a weekly gain of over 2%, as optimism that the Iran conflict might end eased concerns over inflation and rising rates. Spot gold closed up 0.6% at $4,714.41 per ounce. Conversely, oil prices remained under pressure; WTI crude fell 3% on Friday (down over 7% for the week) amid prevailing optimism for peace.

Key Events Today:

  • 09:30 CN CPI & PPI APR **
  • 22:00 US Existing Home Sales APR **

Tomorrow

  • 14:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY Final APR **
  • 17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment May **
  • 20:30 US CPI YoY APR ***

Markets Analysis 11/05/2026

  • Resistance: 1.1797 / 1.1820
  • Support: 1.1728 / 1.1700

After closing at its highest level since April 17 on Friday, the pair opened lower in Monday’s Asian session, falling below 1.1770. This followed news that both Trump and Iran had rejected peace proposals.

Analyst View: While the pair is lower on geopolitical news, bulls are attempting a rebound. Watch resistance at the top of the two-week ascending channel; the 10 and 20-day moving averages ($1.1740 and $1.1720) provide key support.

Bias: Cautiously Bullish

  • Resistance: 1.3634 / 1.3658
  • Support: 1.3532 / 1.3508

Sterling held firm last Friday despite strong U.S. jobs data, supported by a weaker USD and easing geopolitical tensions. Traders should monitor whether the Labor Party’s losses in UK local elections affect the currency.

Analyst View: After opening lower today, the pair is attempting a rebound and has found support near major moving averages, suggesting momentum to move back above 1.3600.

Bias: Cautiously Bullish

  • Resistance: 157.90 / 158.56
  • Support: 156.41 / 155.73

Last Friday, the dollar slipped against the yen as strong NFP data clashed with threats of yen intervention, and on Monday, Asian trading saw the dollar/yen rise to around 157 amid renewed US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Analyst View: The pair moved slightly lower on Friday amid a tug-of-war between strong U.S. data and the threat of yen intervention. It climbed back towards 157 on Monday amid renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

If the pair breaks 157, it could reverse bearish momentum and target the 10-day moving average resistance near 157.60.

Bias: Mild Rebound

  • Resistance: 103.44 / 107.29
  • Support: 94.98 / 91.19

Oil prices fell 3% on Friday as traders anticipated peace; however, the price rebounded to a three-day high on Monday after the peace proposals were rejected.

Analyst View: Prices opened higher today, reclaiming the 20-day moving average. Focus is on the 10-day moving average near $101; failing to break this could return oil to a range-bound pattern.

Bias: Range Bound

  • Resistance: $4743/$4789
  • Support: $4650/$4593
  • Resistance: $81.22/$83.03
  • Support: $78.37/$76.93

Gold traded in a range on Friday, awaiting peace news. Strong U.S. payrolls failed to boost the USD, and falling Treasury yields supported gold.

Analyst View: Gold closed at a two-week high on Friday. Despite a lower open today, it reclaimed the 20-day moving average. Bulls retain control, though recent lower highs may limit further gains without positive news.

Bias: Mildly Bullish

  • Resistance: 50366 / 50936
  • Support: 49112 / 48561

U.S. indices rose on Friday on strong jobs data, though a weak banking sector limited the Dow’s gains.

Analyst View: Dow futures remain near their highs, but bulls are cautious. Support is found between 49,400 and 49,200.

Bias: Range Bound at High Levels

  • Resistance: 29484 / 29868
  • Support: 28607 / 28216

U.S. tech stocks were strong on Friday, led by semiconductor gains (Micron +15%, Intel +14%, AMD +11%).

Analyst View: Technicals suggest room for further record highs, though geopolitical tensions may temper optimism.

Bias: Mildly Bullish

  • Resistance: $82878/$83412
  • Support: $80576/$80024

Bitcoin has surged past the significant psychological barrier of $80,000, as digital assets have benefited from risk-on market sentiment and renewed legislative activity.

Analyst View: After a three-day rally, BTC gave back some of its gains in the early Asian session today. Resistance remains above $82,000, indicating caution among bulls at these levels. Therefore, the focus remains on whether the price will move towards the 10-day moving average to find initial key support near the $80,000 USD threshold.

Bias: Range Bound at High Levels

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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