(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Key TakeawaysThe US and Iran have reportedly reached a draft agreement to extend the ceasefire and allow free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, pending President Trump’s approval. This development raises hopes for a resolution as the market awaits confirmation. The US April PCE Price Index rose 3.8% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since May 2023. The Core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year, the largest increase since November 2023, up from 3.2% in March. Today’s Focus: Attention remains on developments in the US-Iran ceasefire and on President Trump’s statements. In data, Germany’s preliminary May CPI is expected to slow to 0.1% monthly (from 0.6%), with the annual rate at 2.9%. An unexpected rise could boost expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike. Canada’s March GDP is projected to slow to 0.1% month-on-month (from 0.2%), indicating “below trend” growth. |
Global Market Review 29/05/2026
The US equity market rose on positive news about the US-Iran agreement, with all three major indices closing at new highs: the S&P 500 up 0.58%, the Nasdaq up 0.91%, and the Dow Jones up 0.05%. The US Dollar fell against major currencies, while gold prices rebounded by over 1%. WTI crude oil prices declined amid progress on the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Key Events Today:
- 15:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate MAY **
- 16:20 BoE Gov Bailey Speech ***
- 20:00 EU GERMANY CPI Prel MAY ***
- 20:30 CA GDP MoM MAR **
Key Data and Events Coming Week
- Monday: AU/JP/EU/GB/US Manufacturing PMI MAY, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, EU Unemployment Rate
- Tuesday: EU CPI
- Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, AU/JP/EU/GB/US Services & Composite PMI, EU PPI, US ADP Employment Change, US ISM Services PMI & Factory Orders
- Thursday: EU Retail Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday: US Non Farm Payrolls, CA Unemployment Rate
Markets Analysis 29/05/2026
- Resistance: 1.1682/1.1707
- Support: 1.1626/1.1601
After closing at a more-than-one-week high yesterday, EUR/USD remained near 1.1650 during Friday’s Asian morning session. This follows reports that the US and Iran have reached an agreement to extend their ceasefire, with German inflation data due later today.
Analyst View: The pair fell but rebounded, showing strong support near 1.1600 and moving above the 10-day moving average. The key focus is on breaking the 20-day moving average, with a potential test of 1.1700. Market attention is also on the latest German CPI data and President Trump’s position on the ceasefire agreement.
Bias: Mild rebound
- Resistance: 1.3522/1.3564
- Support: 1.3386/1.3343
Reports of a US-Iran agreement have sparked a rebound in the British Pound. Yesterday, the pair halted a two-day losing streak; however, a wait-and-see mood ahead of Bank of England Governor Bailey’s speech later today may limit further gains.
Analyst View: The pair’s focus is on the test of the 20-day moving average above. If it stabilises and breaks higher, it is expected to move further towards the 1.3500 level. Whether Governor Bailey mentions the interest rate outlook in his speech today will also be a key guide for the exchange rate.
Bias: Mild rebound
- Resistance: 159.73/160.08
- Support: 159.06/158.62
After pulling back from a four-week high yesterday, USD/JPY stabilised above 159.00 during Friday’s Asian session. The Tokyo CPI data released this morning dampened market expectations of a June Bank of Japan rate hike and put pressure on the Yen.
Analyst View: The pair halted its two-day winning streak yesterday but remains within an upward channel. Yesterday’s high of 159.65 is the initial key resistance, and holding above the 10-day moving average is necessary to sustain momentum within the high-end range.
Bias: Oscillating upward
- Resistance: 93.04/95.00
- Support: 84.75/82.26
As traders weighed the latest US-Iran conflict against ceasefire news, crude oil prices fluctuated and fell yesterday, reversing early gains. The market remains in wait-and-see mode as it awaits the latest US stance on the ceasefire agreement.
Analyst View: Crude oil remains downward, though it attempted a rebound yesterday; the bears still dominate. Unless positive news provides a new boost, oil prices will likely remain within the trading range seen since the late-April lows, with focus on support below $85.
Bias: Oscillating downward
- Resistance: 4572/4604
- Support: 4468/4435
- Resistance: 78.72/80.74
- Support: 72.17/70.18
The US and Iran have a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire. Spot gold rebounded from a two-month low, briefly exceeding $4,500, but US PCE inflation has capped its gains.
Analyst View: Gold is trying to rebound after a recent correction, testing the 10-day moving average. Its ability to break through this level is crucial for stabilizing above $4,500. Attention is on any US statement regarding the ceasefire agreement.
Bias: Mild rebound
- Resistance: 50806/50920
- Support: 50437/50321
Overnight, Dow initially fell before stabilising. Driven by rumors that the US and Iran have reached an agreement on a memorandum of understanding, the three major US indices closed higher yesterday, with the Dow recording more modest gains as it slightly refreshed its closing record.
Analyst View: Dow has hit record closing highs for two consecutive days. However, it has been trading within a tight range for the past four days, so a breakout above the range top is needed to create more room for upside.
Bias: Range-bound at highs
- Resistance: 30780 / 31160
- Support: 29881 / 29495
While progress in the US-Iran situation emerged, AI-concept stocks continued to drive market sentiment strongly. Yesterday, major tech stocks closed higher, and Nasdaq hit a record high, officially breaking through the 30,000-point mark.
Analyst View: Nasdaq’s bullish momentum is growing, with potential resistance at 30780/31160. Caution is advised, given the US-Iran agreement and potential profit-taking ahead of the weekend.
Bias: Oscillating upward
- Resistance: 74912/76086
- Support: 71846/70945
Bitcoin slumped below $73,000 on Thursday, reaching its lowest level in more than six weeks, as reports that the U.S. and Iran had reached a deal to extend the ceasefire did little to ease concerns amid a selloff across cryptocurrency markets.
BTC/USD has faced pressure for three days, breaking last week’s low. It hit a low of around 72500 yesterday and may continue to trend downward towards the 71846/70945 range.
Bias: Oscillating downward
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