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U.S.–Iran Tensions Return, Forcing Markets to Reprice Geopolitical Risk

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

The U.S.–Iran ceasefire is showing renewed strain. Trump said military action remains possible if Iran refuses to negotiate, while reports suggest the U.S. is preparing contingency strike plans.

U.S. April business activity improved, with the manufacturing PMI reaching a nearly four-year high and jobless claims remaining low, though war-related inflation risks persist.

Today’s focus will be on U.K. March retail sales, expected to return to mild growth of 0.2% month-on-month, offering further clues on how Middle East tensions are affecting U.K. consumption and the wider economy. Later, markets will watch the final U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April. The preliminary reading had fallen to a record low. If the final figure rebounds, it may confirm that markets have overpriced geopolitical risks. If it is revised lower, stagflation concerns could intensify.

Global Market Review 24/04/2026

U.S. stocks moved lower in volatile trading on Thursday, pressured by renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and mounting uncertainty over future peace talks. The Dow fell 0.36%, the S&P 500 lost 0.41%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.89%. U.S. Treasury prices also fell, while the dollar edged higher and stayed on track for a weekly gain, as the U.S.–Iran standoff heightened Middle East tensions and dampened hopes for a peace deal.

Gold retreated yesterday as elevated oil prices fuelled inflation concerns and the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer, while investors awaited progress in the stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks. Spot gold fell 0.95% to close at $4,692.69 per ounce. Oil prices briefly surged after reports that air defence systems over Tehran were intercepting targets, while a power struggle appeared to be emerging between Iranian hardliners and moderates.

Key Events Today:

  • 07:30 JP CPI MAR ***
  • 14:00 GB Retail Sales YoY MAR ***
  • 16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate APR **
  • 20:30 CA Retail Sales MoM FEB **
  • 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final APR ***

Key Data and Events Coming Week:

  • Monday: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence MAY;
  • Tuesday: BoJ Interest Rate Decision; BoJ Press Conference; US CB Consumer Confidence APR;
  • Wednesday: Japan Holiday; US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock; Australia CPI MAR; Eurozone Economic Sentiment and Consumer Confidence Final APR; BoC Interest Rate Decision; BoC Press Conference
  • Thursday: Fed Interest Rate Decision; Fed Press Conference; China Manufacturing and Composite PMI APR; Eurozone CPI Flash APR; BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes; ECB Interest Rate Decision; US GDP and Core PCE Prices Q1 Preliminary; US PCE Price Index MAR; US Initial Jobless Claims; ECB Press Conference
  • Friday: China, Hong Kong and Germany Holiday; Australia Manufacturing PMI Final APR; Japan CPI APR; Japan Manufacturing PMI Final APR; Australia PPI Q1; UK Manufacturing PMI Final APR; US Manufacturing PMI Final APR; US ISM Manufacturing PMI APR

Markets Analysis 24/04/2026

  • Resistance: 1.1722/1.1746
  • Support: 1.1643/1.1620

EURUSD drifted lower as safe-haven flows supported the dollar amid stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations, with geopolitical uncertainty continuing to weigh on the pair’s short-term outlook.

Analyst View: EURUSD has rejected the 1.1722–1.1746 resistance zone and broken below its ascending trendline, signalling a shift from bullish continuation to corrective pressure. While the broader structure remains intact, failure to reclaim 1.1722 may expose the pair to further downside towards 1.1643 and potentially 1.1620.

Bias: Bearish below 1.1700

  • Resistance: 1.3517/1.3549
  • Support: 1.3413/1.3381

GBPUSD moved lower as broader dollar strength dominated market sentiment, while the absence of strong UK data left the pair vulnerable to further downside pressure.

Analyst View: GBPUSD has rejected the 1.3517–1.3549 resistance zone and slipped below short-term structural support, signalling a shift into corrective consolidation. With price holding below the resistance band, downside risks remain towards 1.3413, with a deeper move potentially testing 1.3381 if selling pressure persists.

Bias: Bearish below 1.3485

  • Resistance: 160.04/160.46
  • Support: 159.37/159.03

USDJPY held near 159.55, supported by firm dollar demand, though proximity to 160 keeps intervention risks elevated, potentially limiting further upside momentum.

Analyst View: USDJPY is rebounding from the 159.03–159.37 support zone and approaching the lower edge of resistance near 160.04. Momentum has improved, but unless price breaks clearly above 160.04, the upside may remain capped by intervention risk and the broader resistance band.

Bias: Mildly bullish

  • Resistance: 101.06/105.00
  • Support: 93.18/89.31

Oil prices surged more than 4% as escalating tensions in Iran heightened concerns about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping near-term price risks skewed to the upside.

Analyst View: WTI has rebounded from the 89.31–93.18 support zone, indicating stronger recovery momentum. A break above 101.06 could extend gains towards 105.00, while a failure may trigger renewed consolidation.

Bias: Mildly bullish

  • Resistance: 4735/4764
  • Support: 4675/4638
  • Resistance: 77.81/80.45
  • Support: 71.98/69.38

Gold traded near $4,687, pressured by a stronger dollar but supported by geopolitical risks, with markets watching the $4,650 level as a key near-term support zone.

Analyst View: Gold remains under pressure below $4,735 resistance. Failure to reclaim this zone may keep downside risk towards $4,675 and $4,638, while a breakout could stabilise the short-term structure.

Bias: Bearish below $4,700

  • Resistance: 49705/50513
  • Support: 48428/47784

The Dow declined 0.36% as fading optimism over the resolution of the Iran conflict and rising oil prices revived inflation concerns, weighing on broader equity market sentiment.

Analyst View: The Dow is consolidating below the 49,705 resistance zone after rebounding from support. Holding above 48,428 keeps the recovery intact, but failure to break higher may trigger renewed pressure towards 47,784.

Bias: Hovering around 49,000

  • Resistance: 27182/27471
  • Support: 26308/25933

NAS100 fell 0.89%, pressured by weakness in software stocks, renewed concerns about AI disruption, and cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Analyst View: The NAS100 is trading above the 26,308 support zone following a strong rally. Momentum remains positive, but failure to break 27,182 may trigger short-term consolidation towards 25,933.

Bias: Hovering around 27,000

  • Resistance: 78825/79491
  • Support: 77295/76617

Bitcoin hovered around $78,000, edging lower as rising U.S.-Iran tensions dampened risk appetite, prompting investors to turn cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatility across broader financial markets.

Analyst View: Bitcoin’s pullback appears more like a pause than a reversal for now. As long as $76,617–$77,295 holds, buyers may attempt another recovery, but momentum needs a close above $78,825 to improve.

Bias: Bullish consolidation above $77,295

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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