Market Highlight 15/01/2026
Strong U.S. retail sales in November highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy, though ongoing labour-market weakness could still weigh on consumption. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showed that economic activity increased across most districts, while employment conditions remained broadly unchanged in recent periods.
U.S. equities closed lower on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq leading the declines as technology stocks weakened and investors rotated toward more defensive sectors. Bank stocks extended recent losses after several lenders reported mixed quarterly earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.08%, the Nasdaq fell 1.00%, and the S&P 500 declined 0.53%. The U.S. Dollar Index edged down 0.06% to 99.13. EUR/USD held steady at 1.1642, while USD/JPY rebounded by 0.43% after touching its weakest level since July 2024.
Gold prices continued to set new record highs, driven by geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty that fueled safe-haven demand. Spot gold rose 0.7% to USD 4,620.58 per ounce, after briefly hitting a record peak of USD 4,641.40. However, both gold and silver saw some intraday pullback during early Asian trading on Thursday. Oil prices edged slightly higher overnight, supported by concerns that a potential U.S. strike on Iran could trigger retaliation and disrupt Iranian supply, raising fears of regional supply disruptions.
Key Outlook 15/01/2026
On the data front, markets will focus on the UK’s latest GDP report today. Sterling has shown relatively positive momentum, with markets already fully pricing in a 25 bp rate cut in the first half of 2026 and a possible additional cut later in the year. As a result, the GDP release will be key in shaping expectations for a potential rate cut in February. Consensus forecasts see the three-month GDP growth rate for November slipping further to -0.2% (previous: -0.1%).
Germany will also publish its full-year 2025 GDP growth figures, which could provide direction for the euro. Later, the U.S. will release the January Philadelphia Fed and New York Fed manufacturing indices, both expected to remain in contraction, while weekly initial jobless claims are forecast to rise to 215,000 from 208,000.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 15:00 GB GDP MoM NOV **
- 15:00 GB Industrial Production NOV **
- 15:00 GB Manufacturing Production NOV **
- 18:00 EU Industrial Production NOV **
- 18:00 EU Balance of Trade NOV**
- 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 21:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index JAN **
Tomorrow:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY CPI Final DEC **
- 22:15 US Industrial Production DEC **
Markets Analysis 15/01/2026
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1666/1.1689
- Support: 1.1593/1.1569
EUR/USD remains in consolidation within a 4H descending channel, with rebounds capped by the 1.1666–1.1689 resistance zone. Price continues to oscillate between this area and the 1.1593–1.1569 support zone, reflecting a range-bound structure. Eurozone November industrial production and trade balance may act as a near-term catalyst.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3470/1.3507
- Support: 1.3379/1.3350
GBP/USD struggles to build upside momentum as price action remains trapped inside a 4H descending channel. Sellers continue to emerge around the 1.3470–1.3507 region, while downside is being probed toward the 1.3379–1.3350 support zone. UK November GDP and industrial/manufacturing output are likely to set the tone for the next short term.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 159.26/159.66
- Support: 157.89/157.37
USD/JPY has eased from recent highs after failing to hold above the 159.26–159.66 resistance zone, where selling pressure re-emerged. The pullback is finding initial footing near 157.89–157.37, keeping the broader uptrend intact but momentum moderated. Focus turns to Japan’s December PPI, with firmer inflation potentially reinforcing policy normalization expectations and capping upside.
US Crude Oil Futures (FEB)
- Resistance: 61.55/62.31
- Support: 59.03/58.26
WTI crude oil remains highly volatile after sharp swings near the 61.55–62.31 resistance zone, where upside momentum has stalled. Price is now gravitating back toward the 59.03–58.26 support area, keeping the market in a wide, choppy range. U.S. jobless claims and NY Fed manufacturing data may influence near-term demand expectations, but inventories continue to limit clarity of the trend.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4687/4719
- Support: 4550/4509
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 95.69/97.73
- Support: 89.25/87.18
Gold remains firmly bid after printing fresh record highs, holding within a rising channel despite near-term consolidation. The 4,687–4,719 resistance zone caps upside for now, while pullbacks toward 4,550–4,509 are attracting buyers. With geopolitics and Fed rate-cut expectations intact, the broader bullish structure remains unchanged.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 49466/49772
- Support: 48742/48431
The Dow Futures have slipped back from recent highs, with gains stalling near the 49,466–49,772 resistance zone amid ongoing sector rotation. Price is consolidating above the 48,742–48,431 support area, keeping the broader uptrend intact but momentum more selective. With rate expectations steady, policy uncertainty continues to temper risk appetite.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25649/25884
- Support: 25110/24871
The NAS100 continues to lag, with rallies fading near the 25,649–25,884 resistance zone amid persistent pressure on mega-cap tech. Price action is compressing between this ceiling and the 25,110–24,871 support area, reflecting hesitation rather than trend continuation. With valuations elevated, near-term direction remains highly sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment.
BTC
- Resistance: 98597/99762
- Support: 94652/93139
Bitcoin surged above 96,000 following fresh institutional buying, but upside stalled below the 98,597–99,762 resistance zone. Price is consolidating above the former breakout and 93,139–94,652 support area, keeping the broader uptrend intact. While ETF inflows remain supportive, a persistent Coinbase discount points to fragile retail participation.
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